IS ISRAEL IRAN WAR-A FAKE WAR?
On April first, Israel bombed Iranian embassy in Damascus. It was an attack on the sovereignty of Syria. An attack on any country’s embassy is considered as, direct attack on the country itself. So, Iran vowed to seek revenge and make Israel repent.
But the timing was all wrong. Due to Iran observing fast everyone in the world kept guessing as to when Iran may retaliate. First guess was after the first Friday on 8th. When that did not happen, they guessed that it may be after ‘Id ul Fitr’ on 11th. That too didn’t happen. Finally, on the 13th, Iranian armed forces seized an Israeli container ship near the Straits of Hormuz (With 17 Indian sailors on the ship. Not a big wonder, as many Indian sailors qualify to work in Merchant Navy, as it is a well-paid yet difficult job to get, due to very tough entrance exams). To innocent onlookers, it appeared like Iranian reaction, to the bombing of its embassy in Syria. The hijacking of the ship, by helicopter borne elite troops of Iran, made it look like Iran’s revenge for embassy bombing. In fact, this was a diversionary tactic.
Next day, in the early hours of 14th April, Sunday Iran launched an unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel. It consisted of 300 Drones and missiles fired primarily from its own soil, but also by Iran backed groups from several other countries. However, everything directed at Israel was intercepted before entering Israel’s air space. Very little damage really occurred within Israel.
But Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was seen on that night at 2 am (IST) on Television, threatening to destroy Israel, calling it a Zionist fake state. He said the next slap would be harder. Khamenei is the longest serving head of state in the Middle East, as well as the second- longest-serving Iranian leader of the last century, after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. A leader predominantly of Shia populated Iran against a Sunni majority neighborhoods all around.
Side by side, America’s President Joe Biden was also seen offering Israel, America’ s full support, if any country attempted retaliation on Israel. America vowed an Iron clad commitment to protect Israel.
Even though, Iran bombed and targeted Israel with more than 300 Missile/Drones. Most of its projectiles, UAV’s and Planes had to fly over, airspace of Iraq, Syria, and, Jordon. (Look at the map.)
Some of these were also fired by Iran’s allies in Syria, Jordon and Iraq. Israel’s PM Netanyahu came on TV and assured the people of Israel that its ‘Iron Dome Air defense system’ was ready for this attack. It neutralized most of them over its neighboring countries. Side by side, America’s Naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, downed numerous projectiles intended for Israel. British laser guns also seem to have downed a few of these missiles, bursting them into flames, mid-air.
FOR USA- WORST TIME FOR IRAN ISRAEL WAR.
Globally it is the worst time for a war between Israel and Iran. However, we have seen both these countries threatening to destroy each other for the last forty-five years. Incidentally, Sunnis are a majority in almost all Muslim countries around the world. However, in Iran, Iraq, and Azerbaijan the majority population is Shia Muslims. Pakistan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Chad, Turkey, Bahrain and Kuwait are all Sunni majority countries. So, they oppose Iran.
In 1967, in the six-day war, all these Sunni states were united against Israel. During the war, Israel attacked and destroyed Egypt’s and Syria’s air forces. Israel also defeated Jordanian attacks. The war ended with Israel in control of the Gaza strip, the Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank, and Jerusalem. At that time Iran refused to join this Arab war against Israel. It also went on to recognize Israel as a country in 1972. Later however in 1979 after Khamenei came to power, they refused to recognize Israel as a country.
Is Israel scared of the outcome of the war? I do not think so. It has total confidence in its defense forces and the weapons it possesses.
Is Iran scared? Well, looking at the way, cars are waiting in ques to top up their cars with fuel and collect gas and rations, the people seem to be scared of the military power Israel possesses.
But looking at the way, this particular fight between the two countries played out, it does not appear normal. The drama enacted in public by the two leaders appear normal. But not the actions and reactions. While Iran is baying for revenge, it has given Israel enough time to prepare to defend itself against a 300 strong missile/drone strike. While Israel is promising to bomb Iran to stone age, it’s still just verbal. America, and Joe Biden who are about to go into election mode, are only telling, they’ll protect Israel in case of a war. Not fight with it. American ambassador has been successful in asking Jordon to stay neutral in war. Saudi Arabia is asking United Nations to intervene and stop the war. Kuwait, Qatar are satisfied after America agreed not to use their air bases against Iran. Most of Sunni Arab world is only watching from outside, but not participating in destroying or fighting Israel.
THE WAR COULDN’T HAVE HAPPENED AT A WORSER TIME FORBHARAT.
Economically this war is a big damper for India. Most of the oil India buys is from Iran. All the trade India does with the Middle East, Europe and beyond is through the Persian Gulf. So, the Straits of Hormuz and the passage through the Persian Gulf is important both for India and its leader Modi, at this juncture when elections are about to begin. (Look at the Map)
The frenzy of activities of our External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, these last two weeks, tells us what it means to the present govt in Bharat. So, looking at the way the two major leaders in the world, American and Bharat’s, clearly point at a war where the two opposing sides are saying, “You Act as if you hit me, and I’ll act as if I am itching to strike back.”
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO KODAGU?
If what I surmise, turns out to be true, it will be good time for coffee growers. Because ships will continue to sail through “India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor” (IMEC). Coffee prices will continue to rise and go through the roof and hit the stars. If not, our prices will crash.
Good Luck – Coffee Growers.
Major Biddanda Nanjappa, Recipient of President’s Gold Medal, Convener FMCGT Forum.
The facts and views presented are of the author.
